[GNUz] Fwd: Academics Discuss MS vs. OSS
Ralph Stoker
gnuz@inode.co.nz
Wed, 8 Jun 2005 17:02:11 +1200
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Check out this article from the Harvard Business School...
http://hbsworkingknowledge.hbs.edu/item.jhtml?id=4834&t=technology
Some interesting (surprising?) outcomes..
Ralph
Ps. Never really liked those Swiss gnomes..LOL
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<h1>Microsoft vs. Open Source: Who Will Win?</h1>
<h6>June 6, 2005</h6>
<table border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" id=3D"box">
<tr>
<td align=3D"left" valign=3D"top" width=3D"80"><img src=3D"/images/Te=
ch_topicpage060605.jpg" alt=3D"" border=3D"0"></td>
<td><p>Using formal economic modelling, professors <b>Pankaj Ghemawat=
</b> and <b>Ramon Casadesus-Masanell</b> consider the competitive dyn=
amics of the software wars between Microsoft and open source. Read ou=
r interview.</p></td>
</tr>
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<p><span class=3D"article-author">by Sean Silverthorne, Editor, <em>=
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<p>Want to get a heated debate going among technologists? Ask them th=
is question: Can the open source software movement defeat (or severel=
y cripple) Microsoft in the marketplace? </p>
<p>With little academic attention focused on this question, Harvard B=
usiness School professors Pankaj Ghemawat and Ramon Casadesus-Masanel=
l decided to dive in. Most research to date into the OSS movement has=
focused on the organization and management issues surrounding OSS. G=
hemawat and Casadesus-Masanell chose to explore the fundamental compe=
titive dynamics question: Will OSS ever displace traditional software=
from its market leadership position? </p>
<p>"We believe that there is still a great deal of confusion and puzz=
lement on how this competitive battle will develop," say the authors =
of the academic paper <i>Dynamic Mixed Duopoly: A Model Motivated by =
Linux vs. Windows</i>, which has just been accepted for publication i=
n a special issue of <i>Management Science</i>.</p>
<p>Ultimately, the authors believe, neither side is likely to be forc=
ed from the battlefield=97Microsoft has too much market share and OSS=
offers too many benefits for users. But there are strategies each ca=
n use successfully against the other, as they detail in this e-mail i=
nterview.</p>
<p><span class=3D"article-interview"><strong>Sean Silverthorne:</stro=
ng> Why should OSS ever displace traditional software?</span></p>
<p><strong>Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Pankaj Ghemawat:</strong> One=
main advantage of open source software is that because users can mod=
ify the code directly (as they encounter problems or have new ideas o=
n how to improve it), the development cycle is significantly shorter.=
Proponents of OSS claim that if this <i>demand-side learning</i> (as=
we call it) is sufficiently strong, OSS will oust traditional softwa=
re. In addition, software engineers claim that the better architectur=
e of most OSS projects make them a potentially superior product, addi=
ng to the probability of success.</p>
<p>However, OSS has disadvantages too. Most importantly, it <i>comes =
=66rom behind</i> in terms of market share (installed base). Because =
the value of an operating system depends critically on the number of =
users, traditional software has an advantage. Clearly, a larger insta=
lled base implies that there will be stronger direct and indirect net=
work effects, and this will enhance the value of the operating system=
to current and potential users. In addition, a larger installed base=
also implies that there will be more feedback on bugs and more sugge=
stions for new features.</p>
<p>Our paper introduces a dynamic mixed duopoly model in which a prof=
it-maximizing competitor (Microsoft) interacts with a competitor that=
prices at zero (Linux), with the installed base affecting their rela=
tive values over time. We use a formal model to ask what conditions a=
re needed for Linux to take over Windows. The questions that we addre=
ss are: Is Linux's superior demand-side learning sufficient to win ou=
t? What is the effect of forced procurement by governments and some l=
arge corporations on the long-run equilibrium? How do cost asymmetrie=
s play out? Can Microsoft use piracy strategically to improve its mar=
ket position?</p>
<p>From a managerial perspective, these are significant questions. If=
it turns out that OSS will incontestably displace traditional softwa=
re, software firms need to adapt as quickly as possible to the new co=
mpetitive landscape by, for example, incorporating some aspects of th=
e open source development model, or else be ready to exit. In fact, t=
he model suggests ways in which the likelihood of OSS winning out can=
be minimized (see below). If, to the contrary, OSS turns out not to =
be a threat to the traditional model, firms should not waste time and=
attention trying to figure out ways to fight this battle.</p>
<p><span class=3D"article-interview"><b>Q:</b> Could you summarize yo=
ur results?</span></p>
<p><b>A:</b> First of all, let us make a caveat regarding our approac=
h. Our methodology is formal economic modelling. What this means is t=
hat we construct a stylized mathematical model of the relationship. T=
he model captures what we believe are the most important features of =
the Linux-Windows competitive battle (faster demand-side learning on =
the part of Linux and an initial installed base advantage for Windows=
), but makes important assumptions regarding other aspects. Without t=
hese simplifications, the model would not be tractable and it would n=
ot be possible to obtain results. After having analyzed the base mode=
l, we relax some of these assumptions.</p>
<table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"15" width=3D"275=
" align=3D"right">=20
<tr>=20
<td>
<span class=3D"pull-quote-small">Harnessing demand-side learning mor=
e efficiently</span> <span class=3D"pull-quote-big">is not sufficient=
</span> <span class=3D"pull-quote-small">for Linux to win the competi=
tive battle against Windows.</span></td></tr>
</table>
<p>Our main result is that in the absence of cost asymmetries and as =
long as Windows has a first-mover advantage (a larger installed base =
at time zero), <i>Linux never displaces Windows of its leadership pos=
ition</i>. This result holds true regardless of the strength of Linux=
's demand-side learning. Furthermore, the result persists regardless =
of the intrinsically better design and potential differential value o=
f Linux. In other words, harnessing demand-side learning more effici=
ently <i>is not</i> sufficient for Linux to win the competitive battl=
e against Windows.</p>=20
<p>Having obtained this basic result, we investigate the conditions t=
hat will warrant that Linux ends up forcing Windows out. We do this b=
y modifying the model in two ways. First of all, we look at the effec=
t of having buyers such as governments and some large corporations co=
mmitted to deployment of Linux in their organizations. We call such b=
uyers <i>strategic</i>. In addition to cost-related reasons, governme=
nts back Linux because having access to the source code allows them t=
o verify that sensitive data is treated securely. Binary code makes i=
t hard to figure out who has access to information flowing in a netwo=
rk. Companies such as IBM, in contrast, back Linux because they see i=
n OSS one way to diminish Microsoft's dominance. We find that the pre=
sence of strategic buyers together with Linux's sufficiently strong d=
emand-side learning results in Windows being driven out of the market=
. This may be one main reason why Microsoft has been providing chunks=
of Windows' source code to governments. </p>
<p>Second, we look at the role of cost asymmetries. In the base model=
we assume that the cost structures of Windows and Linux for the deve=
lopment, distribution, and support of software coincide. A natural qu=
estion is then whether the central result that Windows survives in th=
e long-run equilibrium regardless of the speed of Linux's demand-side=
learning persists if there are cost asymmetries. We find that becaus=
e OSS implies lower profits for Microsoft, the larger the cost differ=
ences are between Linux and Windows, the less able Microsoft is to gu=
arantee the survival of Windows.</p>
<p>We also show that it is not all bad news to Microsoft. We analyze =
the effect of having forward-looking buyers and the presence of pirac=
y, and conclude that both benefit Microsoft.</p>
<p>We question the effectiveness of influencing forward-looking buyer=
s' perceptions on the value of an operating system. The model suggest=
s that the more forward-looking buyers are, the more advantageous it =
is to use fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) tactics to drive the com=
peting system out. Consider SCO, a small Swiss-based "vulture" firm t=
hat had bought up the intellectual property rights to a particular ve=
rsion of Unix and threatened Linux users with lawsuits over infringem=
ent of those rights unless they agree to pay substantial licensing fe=
es. IBM, which was one of the prime corporate sponsors of Linux as we=
ll as the target of a lawsuit by SCO that sought $1 billion in damage=
s, alleged in mid-2003 that SCO was in cahoots with Microsoft. Our mo=
del indicates that if buyers are sufficiently forward-looking, such a=
ctions may jeopardize the ability of Linux to continue as an effectiv=
e competitor in the operating system space.</p>
<p>We also look at the effect of piracy and ask whether piracy can ev=
er be beneficial to Microsoft. This extension was motivated by analyz=
ing data on a cross-section of countries on Linux penetration and pir=
acy rates. We found that in countries where piracy is highest, Linux =
has the lowest penetration rate. The model shows that Microsoft can u=
se piracy as an effective tool to price discriminate, and that piracy=
may even result in higher profits to Microsoft! </p>
<p>Finally, the paper investigates the societal welfare consequences =
of OSS availability by comparing different industry structures (monop=
oly and duopoly). We find that while a monopoly of Linux is always pr=
eferable (from the point of view of societal welfare) to a Windows mo=
nopoly, it is ambiguous whether a duopoly Linux-Windows is better tha=
n a Windows monopoly. </p>
<p>The basic trade-off is the following: With a duopoly, more individ=
uals and organizations use PCs because prices are lower, and this rai=
ses welfare. However, with a duopoly, no operating system ends up exp=
loiting fully its potential because developers' efforts wind up divid=
ed between the two systems. However, with a monopoly, the efforts to =
develop new software and improve the platform are directed towards on=
e system only and this may turn out to be better from a social welfar=
e perspective.</p>
<p><span class=3D"article-interview"><b>Q:</b> In general, what surpr=
ised you about the results? What assumptions did you have going in th=
at didn't hold up?</span></p>
<p><b>A:</b> When we began the project, we thought that network effec=
ts and demand-side learning would result in Linux forcing Windows out=
. After all, we reasoned, if Windows is sold at a positive price and =
Linux is free, there will always be Linux users, and if the strength =
of Linux's network effect is large, the value of Linux to prospective=
users should eventually become larger than that of Windows. </p>
<p>Well=85 we were wrong (and this illustrates the usefulness of deve=
loping a formal model). What we had missed is that Microsoft's initia=
l advantage (larger installed base) together with its pricing power a=
llow the company to price strategically to control Linux's market sha=
re going forward. By lowering the price of Windows, the demand for Li=
nux shrinks to the point where Linux is not a threat to the survival =
of Windows. The model also shows that a "milking strategy" (setting h=
igh prices in the short term and leaving the market at some point in =
the future) is not desirable to Microsoft. The reason is that if Micr=
osoft follows such a strategy, as the last period becomes closer and =
closer, the relative benefit of abandoning it and lowering prices to =
survive a few more periods increases dramatically. </p>
<table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"15" width=3D"275=
" align=3D"left">=20
<tr>=20
<td>
<span class=3D"pull-quote-small">The model shows that Microsoft can =
use</span> <span class=3D"pull-quote-big">piracy as an effective tool=
</span> <span class=3D"pull-quote-small"> to price discriminate, and =
that piracy may even result in higher profits to Microsoft!</span></t=
d></tr>
</table>
<p>The "Windows persistence" result turns out to be robust to differe=
nt specifications of the model. In fact, in the first few months into=
the project we had developed several alternative models and every on=
e of them yielded this very same finding. </p>
<p>In addition to this main result, we were also surprised to find th=
at piracy may end up increasing Microsoft's profits. To understand wh=
y, notice that there are two types of pirates: those who would not ha=
ve bought Windows in the first place because it is too expensive, and=
those who would have bought Windows but now decide to pirate it. The=
first category increases Windows' installed base without affecting s=
ales. As a consequence, this group increases the value of Windows. An=
d thanks to these pirates, Microsoft is able to set higher prices in =
the future (because the value of the system goes up). In addition, ha=
ving these pirates means that Linux's installed base does not grow as=
much as it would have if piracy weren't there. The second type of pi=
rates (those who in the absence of piracy would have bought Windows) =
reduces Windows' sales and profit. Thus, if the proportion of first-t=
ype pirates is sufficiently large, Microsoft's profits will increase =
with piracy.</p>
<p>Finally, the social welfare result that a Windows monopoly is not =
always worse than a Linux-Windows monopoly was also unexpected. This =
questions the social desirability of policies aimed at guaranteeing L=
inux's survival.</p>=20
<p><span class=3D"article-interview"><b>Q:</b> You mention in the pap=
er that the model is not to be taken as a literal model of the Linux/=
Microsoft competition. But can you say anything about why Linux has e=
njoyed success against Microsoft? </span></p>
<p><b>A:</b> Linux's success against Microsoft is still relative. In =
the client space, Windows is the undisputable leader, and in the serv=
er space, Linux and Windows have both been gaining positions for the =
past ten years. The big losers are Novell, Unix, Solaris=85 everybody=
except Linux and Windows.</p>
<p>Despite this, Microsoft is visibly concerned about Linux's upsurge=
. The Halloween memos (see <a href=3D"http://www.opensource.org/hallo=
ween/">http://www.opensource.org/halloween/</a>) are an obvious testi=
mony of this concern: "OSS poses a direct, short-term revenue and pla=
tform threat to Microsoft, particularly in server space. Additionally=
, the intrinsic parallelism and free idea exchange in OSS has benefit=
s that are not replicable with our current licensing model and theref=
ore present a long-term developer mindshare threat."</p>
<p>Microsoft has a great deal to lose if Linux wins the operating sys=
tems battle. Microsoft is a software company, and a defeat in operati=
ng systems would point to the vulnerability of its entire business po=
rtfolio. In addition, the operating systems group is one of Microsoft=
's biggest revenue generators. Moreover, to a large extent Microsoft'=
s sustained success over time in such a dreadfully rugged landscape h=
as been due to its dominant position in operating systems. It is well=
known that Microsoft won the browser wars leveraging its dominant po=
sition in client operating systems. And the same will happen in the m=
edia player space unless the American or European antitrust authoriti=
es prevent it. We expect Microsoft to put all its ammunition to fight=
this battle.</p>
<p>Part of the reason why Linux has made significant inroads is the d=
etermination of Richard Stallman and the Free Software Foundation to =
have a <i>free</i> (as in <i>free</i>dom) operating system. According=
to Stallman, application software will never be truly free unless th=
ere is a free operating system that supports it. Thus, since the mome=
nt Linus Torvalds and Richard Stallman joined forces, a big chunk of =
the foundation's efforts have been directed at building a free operat=
ing system.</p>
<p>Then there are some large corporations and governments backing the=
development of Linux. These players use Linux as a way to curb Micro=
soft's dominance. This support is important because there are tedious=
portions of the code that would rarely be developed spontaneously by=
members of the Linux-developer community.</p>
<p><span class=3D"article-interview"><b>Q:</b> From your modelling, w=
hat can Microsoft do strategically to remain competitive against a pr=
oduct that is argued to be of better quality, is updated more frequen=
tly, and is free?</span></p>
<p><b>A:</b> A few actions that the model suggests Microsoft could do=
to remain competitive are:</p>
<ol type=3D "A">
<li>Increase its own demand-side learning.</li>
<ol type=3D "a">
<li>Listen to the demands of the user community to better exploit the=
benefits of demand-side learning. Microsoft must facilitate communic=
ation between the user base and the company to have prompt feedback o=
n the performance of its products.</li>
<li>Make an effort to incorporate improvements in the code (fix bugs =
and introduce new features) as soon as possible. </li>
<li>Reward those who propose improvements for the code. At the very l=
east, Microsoft could publicly acknowledge those who proposed new fea=
tures or discovered bugs.</li></ol>
<li>Feed its direct and indirect network effects.</li>
=09<ol type=3D "a">
<li>Support as much as possible the independent software vendor commu=
nity so that the quantity and quality of complements is substantially=
above that of Linux.</li>
<li>Encourage competition between the different ISVs. The lower the p=
rices of applications, the more appealing the Microsoft system will b=
e.</li>
<li>Price discriminate. Give Windows and applications away to schools=
and universities so that users build their file libraries on Microso=
ft, not Linux.</li></ol>
<li>Minimize the number of strategic buyers.</li>
=09<ol type=3D "a">
<li>Let governments access the source code and give guarantees that s=
ensitive data is treated confidentially.</li>
<li>Price discriminate. Give binary away to organizations and individ=
uals who are not willing to spend money on Windows but who would be w=
illing to use Linux because it is free.</li></ol>
<li>Reduce costs to be able to sustain long periods of time with low =
prices.</li>
<li>Decrease Linux's demand-side learning.</li>
<ol type=3D "a">
<li>Because the way to do this involves some questionable (from a leg=
al point of view) actions, we will refrain from suggesting specifics.=
</li></ol>
<li>Lessen Linux's direct and indirect network effects.</li>
=09<ol type=3D "a">
<li>Make it as hard as possible for Windows applications to work on L=
inux.</li>
<li>Same for MS Office documents.</li>
<li>"Promote" Linux's code forking.</li></ol>
<li>Infuse fear, uncertainty, and doubt into the Linux user community=
. For this to work, the statements must be perceived as credible. Cre=
dibility requires some past FUD announcements to be realized.</li>
</ol>
<p><span class=3D"article-interview"><b>Q:</b> Is there a scenario wh=
ere Linux could be kicked out of the market by Microsoft?</span></p>
<p><b>A:</b> Strictly speaking, within our model the only way in whic=
h Microsoft can get rid of Linux is by setting the price at zero. But=
, even if Microsoft did that, the company would still be selling MS O=
ffice for a positive price. Thus, we conjecture that even in this cas=
e, there would be people developing and using Linux.</p>
<p>The more important question is: What motivates developers to contr=
ibute to open source projects in the first place? As long as the driv=
ers are there, Linux will persist. Given that Linux was born in 1992 =
in an industry already dominated by Microsoft, and given that the fin=
ancial motive is secondary, it will be very hard for anyone to oust L=
inux.</p>
<p>The organizational stream of research on OSS has identified severa=
l drivers of motivation to contribute to open source projects. For Mi=
crosoft to have a chance to kick Linux out of the market, it needs to=
successfully fight them.</p>=20
<p>First, some developers see software as scientific knowledge to be =
shared "like the sharing of recipes among cooks." In fact, some descr=
ibe software developers more like artists seeking fun, challenge, and=
beauty in their work than like calculative, square-minded engineers.=
Second, some individuals find it fun to go against Microsoft. As the=
OSS/free software movement gains momentum and developers foresee tha=
t victory is within reach, they increase their effort to accomplish t=
his. Third, because most OSS projects have a log file listing all con=
tributors to the code, some developers find it desirable to participa=
te in OSS projects to signal their ability and to enhance their chanc=
es of promotion and professional advancement. Finally, user-developer=
s sometimes fix bugs that they find and then release the improved cod=
e so that everybody can benefit.</p>
<table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"15" width=3D"275=
" align=3D"left">=20
<tr>=20
<td>
<span class=3D"pull-quote-small">It will be very hard for anyone to<=
/span> <span class=3D"pull-quote-big">oust Linux.</span></td></tr>
</table>
<p>To the motivations of independent developers to contribute to Linu=
x, we have to add the important support that the free operating syste=
m receives from companies and governments. As long as the motives tha=
t induce these organizations to back Linux persist, Linux will not go=
away.</p>
<p>Finally, and as we mentioned above, having a free operating system=
is central to the mission of the Free Software Foundation, Richard S=
tallman, and Linus Torvalds. It is thus hard to see how Microsoft can=
"persuade" Stallman or Torvalds to cave. And even if it did=85 Linux=
is no longer Stallman's or Torvalds' property. The project is disper=
sed and there is no "owner" of the code. Thus, someone else can take =
the lead. </p>
<p><span class=3D"article-interview"><b>Q:</b> What's next for the bo=
th of you for future research projects?</span></p>
<p><b>A:</b> There are several ways in which our work on Linux can be=
extended. One avenue would be to empirically estimate the difference=
in demand-side learning between Linux and Windows. This would allow =
us to make educated guesses on the chances of survival of Windows and=
make managerial and policy recommendations to OSS advocates, Microso=
ft, and administrations.</p>
<p>In its present form, the paper models the organization of Linux's =
development in a very stylized way. Having a closer look at issues of=
effort coordination may help us better understand how to deal with c=
ode forking, one of OSS's biggest potential problems.</p>
<p>A second organizational issue that could also benefit from formal =
analysis is that of incentives to contribute to OSS. While most resea=
rch on this issue has been sociological in nature, the economic appro=
ach may shed light on why supposedly rational individuals are willing=
to spend valuable time and effort without extrinsic, financial incen=
tives.</p>
<p>A final question that we believe is of utmost importance but that =
has not attracted much attention thus far (at least among academics) =
is: What are the drivers of adoption of OSS? Aside from its empirical=
relevance for both individuals and organizations, it is an interesti=
ng question from a theoretical point of view, too. The presence of ne=
twork effects and demand-side learning make this a non-trivial proble=
m. We conjecture that there are multiple equilibria and that the use =
of FUD to mold perceptions about future value becomes crucial. <img s=
rc=3D"/images/endicon.gif" alt=3D"" border=3D"0" align=3D"absbotton">=
</p>
</font>
<h5> </h5>
<p class=3D"related-title">Related Stories in <i>HBS Working Knowl=
edge</i>:</p>
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=20
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e, please accept our apologies, notify us by return, delete all copie=
s and perform no other act on the email. Unfortunately, we cannot war=
rant that the email has not been altered or corrupted during transmis=
sion.
<br><hr>
</body>
</html>
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begin:vcard
fn:Trevor Laughton
n:Laughton;Trevor
org:Tait Electronics Ltd
adr:;;175 Roydvale Ave;Christchurch;;;New Zealand
email;internet:trevor.laughton@tait.co.nz
title:Technical Director and CTO
tel;work:+64 3 358 0433
tel;fax:+64 3 359 4632
tel;cell:+64 21 619 124
x-mozilla-html:TRUE
url:http://www.taitworld.com
version:2.1
end:vcard
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