[mythtvnz] SSD versus rotational HD pricing

Tue Apr 20 04:26:17 BST 2010

The Point I was originally making is that using these drives are mind
blowing. The speed of boot, loading applications, multitasking (unraring
3 rars at same time with no performance hit etc etc) That is why I
bought them and at sub $300 they are worth it. I wouldn't spend more
than that regardless of capacity or technology.

WHEN! the 1TB drives drop below $300 then I will upgrade my back end
storage as well. But right now they have and will continue to be my main
boot drives and application drives due to performance and nothing to do
with price.

Steve have you used and SSD ?? Actually anyone commenting on here have
you had the pleasure?? ..... We run Myth ... we aren't normal people,
performance and doing crazy off the wall things with technology is why
we are here ... if it was price then we would by MySky or something
similar boring and broken heh :)

All I was trying to say was using SSD's for the first time was mind
blowing ... it reminded me of the first voodoo graphics card, doom,
720p/1080p, all things that changed my 30 plus years in computing.
whether it was waiting for a spectrum tape to load or windows to boot 32
seconds now reduced to 10 ... we have been stuck at 60MB/s for years and
now finally we can have 300+MB/s with multiple threads .... no more
defragging!!!! and way more.... and sub $300 for usable space. ..... if
you haven't tried them all I am saying is you should before you fall
into the $$/MB argument for not as it nothing to do with $$ its all
about mind blowing new technology at a sub $300 price.

I feel sorry for anyone that waits 2 years or even 6 months before they
discover what an SSD drive does technology wise over a standard
mechanical drive.

On Tue, 2010-04-20 at 13:19 +1200, Steve Hodge wrote:
> On Tue, Apr 20, 2010 at 8:02 AM, Mark Kendall <markk at kc.net.nz> wrote:
> 
>         On Mon, 2010-04-19 at 18:30 +1200, Nick Rout wrote:
>         
>         > In relation to the future price debate, surely standard hard drive
>         > prices will continue to fall. So although we may be buying terabytes
>         > of ssd drives at reasonable prices in X years, we'll also be able to
>         > buy hard drives with scores or hundreds of terabytes for reasonable
>         > prices. Given the tendency for people with media PCs to keep
>         > everything for as long as possible, many will chose the
>         > scores/hundreds of terabytes, even if ssd's are faster.
>         > 
>         
>         We're using some Corsair P256MB SSDs at work (unfortunately
>         the 512MB and 1TB are in 3.5" enclosures and we need 2.5")
>         because their price now makes them easier to purchase.  I'm
>         expecting SSDs to spiral down in price and rotational HD's to
>         go down for a little longer and then stop getting cheaper as
>         both demand and size limitations bite.  As soon as prices drop
>         a bit more I'll be wanting one (or more) for home :-)
> 
> I'll be getting at least one sometime in the next year.
> 
> Coincidentally I came across this Computerworld article today via
> Slashdot:
> http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/print/9175690/Why_aren_t_SSDs_getting_cheaper_?taxonomyName=Storage+Hardware&taxonomyId=149
> It says that NAND flash prices have been increasing for the last year
> and are expected to be flat until 2011 due to shortage of supply.
> Between 2007 and 2009 prices had dropped 60% each year, which is still
> not the 75% per year I mentioned in my other email. 75% would get us
> from $4000 per TB to $250 per TB in two years, 60% would only get us
> to $640. Factoring in a year of stable prices before returning to 60%
> drops each year means that a 1TB SSD should be about $1600 in two
> years time. That's nowhere near cheap enough for widespread adoption
> for people who need TBs of storage. But 64GB SSDs should have dropped
> to about $120 in two years time which will make them very common for
> boot/application drives.
> 
> Of course Nick is right that HD prices won't stand still. Assuming
> they continue to fall by 33% each year then in two years 1.5TB HDs
> should be about $60 (which is the lowest price a HD can really get
> to). I can easily imagine most new machines having a $120 64GB SSD and
> a $60 1.5TB HD then.
> 
> Beyond that it really depends on how much storage people commonly
> need. In 5 years time, assuming prices of SSDs are stable for a year
> and then drop at 60%/year for four years, $100 will get you 1TB. The
> cheapest HDs, still around $60, should be about 5TB. Will most users
> need more than 1TB? If not then SSDs will dominate the market. But 5
> years are a long time and I don't think HDs will be able to sustain
> 33%/year price drops that long and I doubt SSDs will still be dropping
> 60% per year by then either.
> 
> Cheers,
> Steve
> 
> 
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