[mythtvnz] SSD versus rotational HD pricing

[Steve Hodge]

On Tue, Apr 20, 2010 at 8:02 AM, Mark Kendall <markk at kc.net.nz> wrote:

>  On Mon, 2010-04-19 at 18:30 +1200, Nick Rout wrote:
>
> In relation to the future price debate, surely standard hard drive
> prices will continue to fall. So although we may be buying terabytes
> of ssd drives at reasonable prices in X years, we'll also be able to
> buy hard drives with scores or hundreds of terabytes for reasonable
> prices. Given the tendency for people with media PCs to keep
> everything for as long as possible, many will chose the
> scores/hundreds of terabytes, even if ssd's are faster.
>
>
>  We're using some Corsair P256MB SSDs at work (unfortunately the 512MB and
> 1TB are in 3.5" enclosures and we need 2.5") because their price now makes
> them easier to purchase.  I'm expecting SSDs to spiral down in price and
> rotational HD's to go down for a little longer and then stop getting cheaper
> as both demand and size limitations bite.  As soon as prices drop a bit more
> I'll be wanting one (or more) for home :-)
>

I'll be getting at least one sometime in the next year.

Coincidentally I came across this Computerworld article today via Slashdot:
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/print/9175690/Why_aren_t_SSDs_getting_cheaper_?taxonomyName=Storage+Hardware&taxonomyId=149
It says that NAND flash prices have been increasing for the last year and
are expected to be flat until 2011 due to shortage of supply. Between 2007
and 2009 prices had dropped 60% each year, which is still not the 75% per
year I mentioned in my other email. 75% would get us from $4000 per TB to
$250 per TB in two years, 60% would only get us to $640. Factoring in a year
of stable prices before returning to 60% drops each year means that a 1TB
SSD should be about $1600 in two years time. That's nowhere near cheap
enough for widespread adoption for people who need TBs of storage. But 64GB
SSDs should have dropped to about $120 in two years time which will make
them very common for boot/application drives.

Of course Nick is right that HD prices won't stand still. Assuming they
continue to fall by 33% each year then in two years 1.5TB HDs should be
about $60 (which is the lowest price a HD can really get to). I can easily
imagine most new machines having a $120 64GB SSD and a $60 1.5TB HD then.

Beyond that it really depends on how much storage people commonly need. In 5
years time, assuming prices of SSDs are stable for a year and then drop at
60%/year for four years, $100 will get you 1TB. The cheapest HDs, still
around $60, should be about 5TB. Will most users need more than 1TB? If not
then SSDs will dominate the market. But 5 years are a long time and I don't
think HDs will be able to sustain 33%/year price drops that long and I doubt
SSDs will still be dropping 60% per year by then either.

Cheers,
Steve
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