[IEE EC3 News] IMA NHS&B 20 Nov 2007 "Easing the diseasing with infection inspec tion"

[Stansfield, Edward]

Dear Colleague,

You are being sent this message because either you gave your email address
at one of our previous lectures or you signed up on the web site associated
with this email list
(http://www.ourshack.com/mailman/listinfo/iee-ec3-news).

I have appended the details of the next lecture by your local group of the
IMA and hope to see you there.

Details of other lectures from the IET local area Specialised Section may be
found at - 
http://www.iee.org/OnComms/Branches/UK/England/SEastE/EC3/

For details of other IMA N. Hants, Surrey and Berkshire Branch activities
visit 
http://www.north-hants-ima.ukscientists.com/

Best wishes

Edward Stansfield

======================

THE INSTITUTE OF MATHEMATICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS
North Hants, Surrey and Berkshire Branch

Easing the diseasing with infection inspection
(or optimal intervention of an epidemic model under uncertainty)

Dr Nathan Green (Defence Science and Technology Laboratories)

Tuesday 20th November 2007  8pm

Cody Sports & Social Club, Old Ively Road, 
Pyestock, Farnborough, Hampshire

Light Refreshments will be provided

Abstract

This presentation will be concerned with optimal intervention policies for a
continuous-time stochastic SIR (susceptible, infective, removed) model for
the spread of infection through a closed population.  In previous work on
such optimal policies, it is common to assume that model parameter values
are known; in reality, uncertainty over parameter values exists. The effect
upon the optimal policy of changes in parameter estimates shall be
considered, and of explicitly taking into account parameter uncertainty via
a Bayesian decision theoretic framework.  Policies allowing for (i) the
isolation of any number of infectives, or (ii) the immunisation of all
susceptibles (total immunisation) will be investigated and numerical
examples given to illustrate the results.

All N. Hants, Surrey and Berkshire Branch talks are open and free of charge
to anyone who is interested.

Details

The Cody Sports and Social Club is situated off the A323 at the Norris
Bridge Roundabout, see
http://www.north-hants-ima.ukscientists.com/Maps/cody_directions.htm for a
map.

If you expect to attend please inform the Branch Membership Secretary, John
Chapman (jrchapman1 at dstl.gov.uk <mailto:jrchapman1 at dstl.gov.uk>;) or tel.
01252 455739 (work), to assist us in making catering arrangements, but if
you don't get round to doing this, just turn up anyway.  For details of
other N. Hants, Surrey and Berkshire Branch activities visit
http://www.north-hants-ima.ukscientists.com/ or contact the Branch
Secretary: Dan Tilley, DSTL, Farnborough, Hants, GU14 0LX;  email:
datilley at dstl.gov.uk tel: (01252) 45 5854. 


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