[chbot] Chchrobotics Digest

[hamster]

I agree, but... pulling numbers out of thin air... 

Say 2% of good
looking nuts are bad, and 50% of grotty looking nuts are bad. And of the
whole harvest 10 percent of the nuts look grotty. 

If we have 2000
ungraded nuts we have 

- 1800 good looking nuts, with 1764 good, and 36
being grotty. 

- 200 bad looking nuts, with 100 being good and 100
being grotty. 

No grading will give 20 bags of 100 nuts, with 10
grotty-looking nuts each with 6 or so bad nuts in each bag. 

A perfect
grader (with zero errors) will give 18.64 bags of 100 nuts, each with 5
or 6 that look grotty, all edible. 

A perfect visual-only grader would
give 18 bags of 100 nuts, with two bad nuts in each. 

To match the
performance of the visual method, you would need less than 2.5% false
positive rate (casting out < 50 good nuts), and about a 14% false
negative rate (allowing less than 20 of the 136 bad nuts to slip
through). And in the end you will end up with 18 bags, each containing
half a dozen grotty looking nuts. 

My view is it is better to give them
two good-looking but bad nuts than 5 grotty looking ones that they won't
eat anyway because they look bad. 

Mike 

>> On the other hand, maybe
the aim is to get rid of the ones that don't *look* like grade-A
nuts.... any grade-Z nuts that make it through because they look OK
represent pure profit :-)
> 
> I would pay more for a bag of nuts that
were all edible. 
> 
> Cheers Wallace
> 
>
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