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<p>I agree, but... pulling numbers out of thin air...</p>
<p>Say 2% of good looking nuts are bad, and 50% of grotty looking nuts are bad. And of the whole harvest 10 percent of the nuts look grotty.</p>
<p>If we have 2000 ungraded nuts we have</p>
<p>- 1800 good looking nuts, with 1764 good, and 36 being grotty.</p>
<p>- 200 bad looking nuts, with 100 being good and 100 being grotty.</p>
<p>No grading will give 20 bags of 100 nuts, with 10 grotty-looking nuts each with 6 or so bad nuts in each bag.</p>
<p>A perfect grader (with zero errors) will give 18.64 bags of 100 nuts, each with 5 or 6 that look grotty, all edible.</p>
<p>A perfect visual-only grader would give 18 bags of 100 nuts, with two bad nuts in each. </p>
<p>To match the performance of the visual method, you would need less than 2.5% false positive rate (casting out < 50 good nuts), and about a 14% false negative rate (allowing less than 20 of the 136 bad nuts to slip through). And in the end you will end up with 18 bags, each containing half a dozen grotty looking nuts.</p>
<p>My view is it is better to give them two good-looking but bad nuts than 5 grotty looking ones that they won't eat anyway because they look bad.</p>
<p>Mike</p>
<blockquote type="cite" style="padding-left:5px; border-left:#1010ff 2px solid; margin-left:5px; width:100%">
<blockquote type="cite" style="padding-left:5px; border-left:#1010ff 2px solid; margin-left:5px; width:100%">On the other hand, maybe the aim is to get rid of the ones that don't *look* like grade-A nuts.... any grade-Z nuts that make it through because they look OK represent pure profit :-)</blockquote>
<pre>I would pay more for a bag of nuts that were all edible.
Cheers Wallace
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