<div class="gmail_quote">On Mon, Apr 19, 2010 at 4:01 PM, Daniel Giddens <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:daniel@acsdata.co.nz">daniel@acsdata.co.nz</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; padding-left: 1ex;">
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If you read my post you will see I bought an Intel 40GB SSD for $225. This is not about price per MB it is about 32 seconds boot time vs 10 seconds from cold not from standby. It's about achieving 300MB/s not 60MB/s. It's about running 4 streams at 300MB/s and not 4 streams at a few MB/s. If you use a new SSD drive you will never go back ... well that's my opinion anyway. <br>
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I have multiple frontends, some with compact flash, some with HDD and now some with SSD's. I am speaking from first hand experience not paper theory.<br></div></blockquote><div> </div><div>I don't disagree with any of that. But you said "Within 2 years all
drives will be SSD's". I don't think so. That's the only point I
addressed in my reply; the bit I quoted.<br><br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; padding-left: 1ex;"><div>
I agree we are a way off getting 1TB SSD's at cheap prices today. Today we can get 2TB for under $230. Two years ago we probably were buying 250GB drives for that price.<br></div></blockquote><div><br>Not quite. 2 years I bought a 320GB drive for $110 and 6 months after that I bought a 500GB for $115. 2 years ago I think $230 was buying at least 500GB.<br>
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I use old style drives for the backend because yes SSD's would be way to expensive to use to TB's of storage. The original topic was frontends which is where I recommended SSD's over compact flash.<br></div></blockquote>
<div><br>I'm not questioning your recommendation.<br> </div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; padding-left: 1ex;"><div>
I recon we will see TB SSD's for reasonable prices within 2 years. Manufacturers will be heading that way versus mechanical drives and as volume and competition rises the prices will fall. <br></div></blockquote><div>
<br>Unlike with HDs, SSDs prices scan pretty much linearly with capacity. So you're expecting something that right now would cost $4000+ to be say $250 in two years. Looking at the drives I've bought (12 drives between 80GB and 1500GB in
that last 6 years) there's actually a pretty solid linear trend for the
log of the price per GB. It works out quite close to price/GB falling
by 33% per year. For SSDs to manage a drop from $4000 to $250 they'd need to drop by 75% per year. SSDs are much less mature technology-wise so they
should drop faster for a while but that fast? I don't think so.<br><br>Or looking at it the other way, capacities have to increase by a factor of nearly 16: a doubling every 6 months. SSDs seem likely to be closer to Moore's law: doubling every 18 months.<br>
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Lets repost in two years and see who's right :)<br></div></blockquote><div><br>Sure. But if I can still buy a non-SSD drive then I win, right? You did say "all" :-)<br><br>Seriously though they'll definitely be much cheaper/larger. But I think it'll take more like 4-5 years to the 1TB for $250 type of prices. At that
point whether or not HDs have a place will depend on what sorts of
capacities they've reached. If they're still ahead by a factor of 5-10
for the same price then they certainly will. If it's only a factor 2
then maybe not.<br><br>Cheers,<br>Steve<br></div></div>