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<p><font face="Candara">Regardless of which model anyone uses, it's
pointless unless you can get the virus/plague/illness to also
follow the model.</font></p>
<p><font face="Candara">I've yet to see Mother Nature and the
vagaries of the human body subscribe to any predictions apart
from the birth then death (and taxes) path.<br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Candara">Cancer is just one example.</font></p>
<p><font face="Candara"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Candara">In the olden times most would have died on
the journey here, and social interactions was reduced, so we can
blame our modern lifestyle for encouraging these things.</font></p>
<p><font face="Candara"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Candara">Having been working through the lockdown
with social distancing, sanitising and wiping, I can assure you
that the best plans are often skipped by one or more people,
which then comprimises someone else, and makes the error figure
become a significant factor.</font></p>
<p><font face="Candara"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Candara">Hopefully our actions as a nation aren't
like the rabbit virus some idiot introduced thinking he/she knew
better than those in the scientific world.</font></p>
<p><font face="Candara"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Candara">While you're making those robot coffee
things, can you improve the temperature because they're always
cold/luke warm.</font></p>
<p><font face="Candara">Baristas hate it when you ask them to
microwave it, so maybe the robot will do it without the response
I usually get. <span class="moz-smiley-s5"><span>:-D</span></span><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Candara"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Candara">Mark<br>
</font></p>
<br>
<br>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 10/05/20 17:32, Mike Field wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:03ab4094-6d05-402b-ee97-767c50c444f4@snap.net.nz">What
parts were dodgy?
<br>
<br>
When I read them the seemed pretty realistic given the data
available at the time -R-naught of around 2.5 and somewhere
between a 0.9% and 1.92% case fatality rate and assuming no
effective pharmacological interventions. Pretty simple, with an
uncontrolled transmission you have the >50% of people getting
it and the associated fatalities, and even with controls things
get pretty bad once the controls come off.
<br>
<br>
If others haven't read it yet I recommend you do:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://cpb-ap-se2.wpmucdn.com/blogs.auckland.ac.nz/dist/d/75/files/2017/01/Supression-and-Mitigation-Strategies-New-Zealand-TPM-1.pdf">https://cpb-ap-se2.wpmucdn.com/blogs.auckland.ac.nz/dist/d/75/files/2017/01/Supression-and-Mitigation-Strategies-New-Zealand-TPM-1.pdf</a><br>
<br>
There is plenty more water to go under the bridge.... maybe USA's
"opening the economy back up" will provide a useful reference?
<br>
<br>
Mike
<br>
<br>
PS. I think everybody on the list should get a robo-coffee maker,
so all those highly skilled but now unemployed baristas can go
work on shovel-ready projects like building a covered Stadium for
the local Rugby Union who can't pay for it? Surely pouring coffee
is much like placing concrete? Some of those Muffin Break scones
are like bricks... (Poe's law applies to this comment)
<br>
<br>
On 10/05/2020 4:02 pm, Charles Manning wrote
<br>
<blockquote type="cite">The modelling done by that NZ "centre for
excellence" have been appalling but, unfortunately, seem to be
the ones the government used the most.
<br>
</blockquote>
<br>
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