[chbot] Modelling virus spread...

[Charles Manning]

Volker I think I need to push back a bit on one point you made:

"Whether the economic cost of trying to stop the spread is worth it
heavily depends on whether you're in the risk group,"

Those at-risk people are for the most part frail and have co-morbidities.
Life expectancy would be 2 years or less. Of that, not all would be high
quality life, but let's just say 2 years.

Of those at risk people, less than 1% would die, but let's just say 1% for
an easy number.

So the expected extra life for an at risk person is 1% of two years = 1
week. If you want to change it to 2% (2 weeks)  or 5% (5 weeks) I don't
believe it matters much.

Now to get that extra week, everyone, including that at-risk person, has
had to give up
* Six weeks (and counting) of all the things that make life worth living:
** Socialising with friends
** Going to the park
** Visiting their family members, grandchildren etc.
** Travelling and having fun.
* Their children and grandchildren have lost businesses, jobs etc.
** This is a long-lasting impact that will go on for years.
** Many frail people are going to go to their graves seeing their families
wrecked in the name of "saving" them.

Getting an expected 1, or even 5, week of life, but throwing away 6 weeks
(and counting) of quality of life is not a good deal for the at risk people
- let alone everyone else.





On Sun, May 10, 2020 at 1:16 PM Volker Kuhlmann <list57 at top.geek.nz> wrote:

> > An interesting result, but it makes several assumptions that impact the
> > conclusion significantly. One is that once people have recovered from the
> > virus, they are immune. This has not been shown.
>
> Don't forget that the absence of any long lasting or permanent
> detrimental effects on health of the recovered has also not been shown.
> Permanently damaged lungs have already been mentioned.
>
> Volker
>
> --
> Volker Kuhlmann
> http://volker.top.geek.nz/      Please do not CC list postings to me.
>
> _______________________________________________
> Chchrobotics mailing list Chchrobotics at lists.ourshack.com
> https://lists.ourshack.com/mailman/listinfo/chchrobotics
> Mail Archives: http://lists.ourshack.com/pipermail/chchrobotics/
> Meetings usually 3rd Monday each month. See http://kiwibots.org for
> venue, directions and dates.
> When replying, please edit your Subject line to reflect new subjects.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.ourshack.com/pipermail/chchrobotics/attachments/20200510/f938e551/attachment-0001.html>